an NFL star just isn't paying attention

predicted that when he was walking the streets of Charleston, Illinois you need to sell the farm and move to Vegas.

Kurt Warner went to Northern Iowa.

In the late 1980s, Southern Mississippi had Brett Favre, who's still starting in the NFL.

Small school legend Joe Flacco looks like a star in the making.

Anyone who still thinks you need to be a college superstar or go to a Pac 10 or SEC school to become an NFL star just isn't paying attention.

It's stunning that even in the 21st century, when every NFL team's video department rivals a small local TV station and huge dollars are spent on scouting that, it all boils down to the individual player's ability to transition.

Would 23 other teams pass on handing Aaron Rodgers a jersey and a job if the 2005 NFL Draft were held tomorrow? They did just four years ago. Alex Smith was the toast of the towns-New York and San Francisco that April day. But he went into a miserable situation and now finds his career pretty much over.

Scouting is still important. But in the end, you can't teach a player's ability to grasp the phone book-sized playbooks and offensive concepts. You can make him study but he has to learn on his own. You can't help him make the throws required of an NFL quarterback. You can't help him deal with the pressure. You can conduct interviews, give him tests and time his 40-yard dash. But no team, no coach and no general manager can predict which 22 year-old will become a Super Bowl winning quarterback.

Big games apparently didn't help Matt Leinart. What Favre brought to the table couldn't be taught. Yet here are the fans who used to despise him, wearing Favre Vikings jerseys of all things. He approaches 40-still having not missed a game since he debuted when it was still big news that the Berlin Wall had come down.

Tony Romo jerseys may not outsell Favre, but they share the kinship of being relatively unheralded players who persevered and made geniuses out of those who dared to take a chance.

If you're running an NFL team, you pays your money and you takes your chance. A winning bet doesn't always start with a can't miss pedigree.

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